Lebanon: The Only Exit Strategy

Charles Krauthammer’s newest column says that the world has a golden opportunity to rid itself of Hezbollah. Look at this:

“Hence the golden, unprecedented opportunity. Hezbollah makes a fatal mistake. It crosses the U.N.-delineated international frontier to attack Israel, kill soldiers and take hostages. This aggression is so naked that even Russia joins in the Group of Eight summit communique blaming Hezbollah for the violence and calling for the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty in the south.

But only one country has the capacity to do the job. That is Israel, now recognized by the world as forced into this fight by Hezbollah’s aggression.

The road to a solution is therefore clear: Israel liberates south Lebanon and gives it back to the Lebanese.

It starts by preparing the ground with air power, just as the Persian Gulf War began with a 40-day air campaign. But if all that happens is the air campaign, the result will be failure. Hezbollah will remain in place, Israel will remain under the gun, Lebanon will remain divided and unfree. And this war will start again at a time of Hezbollah and Iran’s choosing.

Just as in Kuwait in 1991, what must follow the air campaign is a land invasion to clear the ground and expel the occupier. Israel must retake south Lebanon and expel Hezbollah. It would then declare the obvious: that it has no claim to Lebanese territory and is prepared to withdraw and hand south Lebanon over to the Lebanese army (augmented perhaps by an international force), thus finally bringing about what the world has demanded — implementation of Resolution 1559 and restoration of south Lebanon to Lebanese sovereignty.”

I like his thinking but I am not sure that I agree with everything he says. A short reoccupation of Lebanon is unlikely to solve the problem presented by Hezbollah. The reason is that you have an ideological war being fought in which the combatants are not always easily identifiable.

How do you determine who is a member of Hezbollah and who is not.

However this doesn’t mean that there are not advantages and opportunities here. Certainly Israel would have the opportunity to try and force a more comprehensive crackdown on the weaponry that Hezbollah has acquired.

In my mind one of the big questions is can Israel weaken Hezbollah enough for the Lebanese army to take control.

Other bloggers who have written about this include:

Captain’s Quarters

Daily Pundit

Below The Beltway